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Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 27, 2018

What a week we have coming up. The highlights being Usain Bolt here in London, Ben Bernanke in Washington and Mario Draghi in Frankfurt. The first of these three may set the hearts fluttering most but everyone in the world’s wallet will be very influenced by the latter two. After yesterday’s surprise...

Euro Area Heading for a Turn – Deutsche Bank

„Our view is that the euro area can achieve a turning point in the growth cycle if 1) credit growth falls to around -1.0%, and 2) the pace of deleveraging then stabilizes. „Credit growth fell to -0.5% in June, suggesting that while the adjustment process in the euro area is well underway it has not...

Spain and the Psychology of Contagion – Morgan Stanley

The interconnectedness between the sovereign and the banks appears to have negatively affected Spain government funding – with the debate on direct vs. indirect bank recaps far from resolved, but apparently leaning towards the latter, while only the former is a true circuit-breaker. Should markets push...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 26, 2018

After yesterday’s Olympic breakfast travel and weather report in the EMR, today Olympic fever builds here in the city as the torch parades through the square mile this morning. Its quite ironic that London hosted the 1948 so called “Austerity Games” and is now hosting again in a recession...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 25

Another day another slew of record levels for markets with the highlight probably being the first ever 10 year US treasury close below 1.4% and the Italian stock market trading through the 2009 lows and closed at its lowest level since Bloomberg’s time series starts in 1997. Spain’s IBEX (-3.58%)...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 24, 2018

Today we enter an important two or three days for Europe with a stretch of data that may determine whether the ECB can find the justification to aggressively act at next week’s meeting. First we have today’s flash PMIs in Europe overall and in Germany and France specifically. Although we...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 23

Its difficult to know what the main story is going to be this week. There’s a lot going on before we embark on a Olympic fortnight here in the now sunny London after the what was (hopefully past tense) the wettest early summer on record. I’m still recovering from the shock of having two low...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 20, 2018

The market was largely in consolidation mode yesterday with equities and credit finishing flat to moderately better ahead of EU finance minister’s conference call on Spain today. Officials are expected to approve the EU100bn Spanish bank rescue plan however the exact size of the loan will probably only...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 19, 2018

With Spanish 10-year bond yields again edging back towards the 7% region yesterday and their spread to Bunds hitting a fresh euro-era high of 576bp the risk rally yesterday was impressive. The S&P 500 stayed positive throughout most of the trading session before finishing the day +0.67%% higher. Indeed...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 18, 2018

If you were in Europe yesterday, depending on when you left the office stocks were either going down on disappointment that Bernanke gave no new hints of QE3 or they were climbing as Bernanke reiterated that the Fed are prepared to act if needed. We had both interpretations after his testimony but in the end...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid July 17, 2018

In spite of a pretty poor US retail sales report and fresh record yield lows in many countries, yesterday felt fairly quiet and devoid of any desire to factor in the implications of a Q2 GDP in US that now might struggle to eclipse 1%. Indeed even the IMF’s growth outlook cuts and warning of a looming...

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 12, 2018

Market’s initial reaction to the FOMC minutes last night clearly reflects a desire for more policy easing. Indeed the S&P 500 dipped around 10pts on the first read of the release before trimming those losses into the close. The index finished virtually where it started (0.00%) and the last time we saw...

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