Sat, 04 Aug 2018 08:35 IST
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Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – August 3, 2018

Had you gone on holiday last Wednesday night to a remote blackberry/Bloomberg free desert island and landed back just before the ECB meeting yesterday then you may have been pleasantly surprised by what they offered up. However expectations are everything and they couldn't live up to the elevated … [Read more...]

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – August 1, 2018

August gets off to a busy start today as we have the FOMC’s policy decision and manufacturing PMIs from both sides of the Atlantic. We'll review July at the end and include all our usual performance review charts and tables in the pdf. First though we'll preview the Fed. DB’s Peter Hooper thinks that … [Read more...]

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 31, 2018

Welcome to the final day of July. We will include our usual monthly asset performance review in tomorrow’s EMR but with the exception of the European peripheral complex July is shaping up to be a positive month for most risk assets largely helped by expectations of some form of ECB intervention … [Read more...]

Big Policy en route – Deutsche Bank

The national governments’ response to the euro crisis was stuck under the weight of political and legal constraints, with a lull which could well extend beyond the summer. The ECB is the only institution which could unlock the situation. We think that Draghi’s speech in London on 26 July, provided … [Read more...]

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 30, 2018

This week we'll probably see the start of a butterfly effect which will shape the rest of the year one way or another. Will the ECB embark on a significant change in direction or will they fail to reach a consensus and risk the rally of the last few days and throw the market back into turmoil? Our … [Read more...]

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 27, 2018

What a week we have coming up. The highlights being Usain Bolt here in London, Ben Bernanke in Washington and Mario Draghi in Frankfurt. The first of these three may set the hearts fluttering most but everyone in the world’s wallet will be very influenced by the latter two. After yesterday’s surprise … [Read more...]

Euro Area Heading for a Turn – Deutsche Bank

„Our view is that the euro area can achieve a turning point in the growth cycle if 1) credit growth falls to around -1.0%, and 2) the pace of deleveraging then stabilizes. „Credit growth fell to -0.5% in June, suggesting that while the adjustment process in the euro area is well underway it has … [Read more...]

Spain and the Psychology of Contagion – Morgan Stanley

The interconnectedness between the sovereign and the banks appears to have negatively affected Spain government funding – with the debate on direct vs. indirect bank recaps far from resolved, but apparently leaning towards the latter, while only the former is a true circuit-breaker. Should markets … [Read more...]

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 26, 2018

After yesterday's Olympic breakfast travel and weather report in the EMR, today Olympic fever builds here in the city as the torch parades through the square mile this morning. Its quite ironic that London hosted the 1948 so called "Austerity Games" and is now hosting again in a recession built out of … [Read more...]

Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid – July 25

Another day another slew of record levels for markets with the highlight probably being the first ever 10 year US treasury close below 1.4% and the Italian stock market trading through the 2009 lows and closed at its lowest level since Bloomberg's time series starts in 1997. Spain’s IBEX (-3.58%) … [Read more...]